Twenty20 World Cup 2010 – India have a chance to enter the semi final if……. ???


Australia thrashed Sri Lanka in their second super eight game by huge margin of 81 runs to storm into Semi Final of ICC World twenty20 2010. With this big win it has once again open the door for second team to qualify from Group F.
Australia after electing to bat first doesn’t get start they have hoped for and struggling at 67/5 at the end of 11th over but thanks to superb unbeaten partnership between M.Hussey (39 runs of 26 balls) and C.White (85 runs of 49 balls) which guided Australia into commanding position by putting 101 runs in just 54 balls. The duo added 91 runs in the last 7 overs of their inning.
Earlier Sri Lanka spinner S.Randiv impressed everybody and picked up three crucial wickets of Australian inning to put them on back foot.
Sri Lanka started their run chase with in from M.Jayawardne and S.Jayasurya but unfortunately their in-form batsman Jayawardne departed soon after scoring 9 runs fo 6 balls.
Jayawardne dismissal followed by Sangakkara wicket in the space of 6 deliveries put Sri Lanka in bit of trouble. However T.Dilshan (20 runs of 12 balls) and A.Mathews (8 runs of 4 balls) tried to play some aggressive shot during their stay but M.Johson dismissed both of them in same over to put Sri Lanka out of the game. In the end Sri Lanka dismissed for just 87 runs in 16.2 overs.
With this big loss by Sri Lanka they have given India a slight chance of making into the last four.
Now West Indies, Sri Lanka or India any team can qualify for the semi final of ICC World twenty 2010 provided following scenario:

What Sri Lanka needs to do to qualify for Semi Final?

With the big loss against Australia, their net run rate has taken beating and at presently Sri Lanka net run rate is -0.60. The equation for Sri Lanka is not as simple as it could have been, so they not only need to win the game against India but they need to win by bigger margin to give them a chance. If they only manage to beat India by fewer margins then they have to depend on the Australia West Indies game and hope that Australia beat West Indies.
What happened if they lost to India and West Indies lost to Australia, in that case Sri Lanka have to make sure that India must not chase down total in 17.3 overs and if Sri Lanka bat second then they have to make sure that winning margin of India should not be more than 19 runs.

What West Indies needs to do to qualify for Semi Final?

Since they will play 2nd game on 11th May 2010, so they will know the results of Sri Lanka v India game, so depending on that results if India have beaten Sri Lanka then the equation for West Indies is quite simple - win against Australia and go through.
If Sri Lanka wins against India then they have to beat Australia by bigger margin to better their net run rate than SL and by the time match will take place they have full knowledge of mathematical scenario. At presently West Indies NRR is -1.08.

What India needs to do to qualify for Semi Final?

With big loss against Australia in first super eight game their net run rate has also taken beating considerably and at presently their NRR is hovering at -1.58.
The equation for them is also not as easy as for the West Indies or Sri Lanka. Here is the scenario, if they bat first they must beat Sri Lanka by 20 runs or more margins and if they have to chase down the Sri Lankan total then they must chase down in 17.3 overs or less.
Not only that they have to also hope that West Indies loss their game against Australia to make them qualify for the semi final.

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